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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 22 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.36 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model