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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 24 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(:14) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Gronkowski.

The Three Options

GO +4.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model