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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP