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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 72

New England Patriots 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 5 yards (49-J.Cardona; 18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model