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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 89-V.McDonald pushed ob at ARI 34 for 6 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model