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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 26, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown pushed ob at ARI 31 for 5 yards (88-G.Celek).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.59 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 35, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model