Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 20 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(5:34) 9-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to SF 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 21 for 3 yards (10-B.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model