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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-B.Golden to ARI 35 for 6 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model