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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 20 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 9-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to SF 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.66 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP