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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:53) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Patterson (41-M.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model