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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 31 for 4 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model