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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model