Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Arizona Cardinals 24

(6:10) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to ARI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-Jo.Brown pushed ob at MIN 47 for 32 yards (18-J.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model