Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Minnesota Vikings 30

(:44) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer sacked at ARI 19 for -15 yards (99-D.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.78 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -1.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP