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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to ARI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 18 for 6 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.86 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model