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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 33

New York Giants 6 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 23-R.Jennings pushed ob at CHI 28 for 5 yards (26-D.Bush). CHI-22-C.LeBlanc was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model