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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 28

New York Giants 6 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 5-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model