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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 42

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.59 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP