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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 56

New York Giants 22 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to CHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model