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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 33

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-C.Barth 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model