Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 94

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to NYG 41, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 40, recovered by NYG-24-E.Apple at NYG 31. 24-E.Apple to NYG 31 for no gain (27-S.McManis). Officially, a punt for 54 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.85 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.62 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model