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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 60

New York Giants 22 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to CHI 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP