Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 67

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 22

(3:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.39 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model