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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 17

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to CHI 2 for 15 yards (22-C.LeBlanc, 50-J.Freeman).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model