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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 22

Chicago Bears 6 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:29) 4-C.Barth 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model