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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 6 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 9-B.Wing punts 54 yards to CHI 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-E.Royal MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 13. 19-E.Royal to CHI 21 for 8 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). Officially, a punt for 55 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model