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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Green Bay Packers
4th & 2 at the 25
Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(12:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to WAS 18 for 7 yards.
The Three Options
GO
+1.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
- 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
KICK
+0.84 EP
- 78% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
- 22% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
