4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 10-J.Schum punts 34 yards to WAS 41, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model