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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 80

Washington Commanders 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to GB 34, Center-59-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to GB 44 for 10 yards (52-T.Garvin). GB-39-D.Goodson was injured during the play. He is Out. 39 - Goodson has an injured knee

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model