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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to WAS 6, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model