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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 59

Washington Commanders 29 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 8-K.Cousins right guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (98-L.Guion). QB sneak

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model