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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 50

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to GB 10, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model