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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to MIA 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 14-J.Landry to MIA 12 for 1 yard (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP