Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 90

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to LA 42, Center-92-J.Denney. 10-P.Cooper to LA 39 for -3 yards (31-M.Thomas). Penalty on MIA-31-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LA-59-J.Forrest, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.85 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model