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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model