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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to LA 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.68 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -2.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model