Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(13:28) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model