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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to MIA 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model