Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to LA 33, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin to MIA 31 for 36 yards (45-M.Hull). Penalty on LA-39-M.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.93 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model