Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(14:25) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to LA 36, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 47 for 11 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.34 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 89, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model