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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to LA 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 32 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.96 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP