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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PENALTY on MIA-96-L.Orr, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 38.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.95 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP