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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIA 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.18 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model