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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model