4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to CAR 49, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.32 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP