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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(:39) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-V.Butler), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by CAR-59-L.Kuechly at CAR 12. 59-L.Kuechly for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 30.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model