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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 20 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.27 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model