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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model