Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 24 for 11 yards (52-J.Norris; 54-S.Thompson). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.38 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -1.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model