4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model